UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Las Vegas, USA
27 Mar 2021
Bantamweight
VS
78%
O'Malley
22%
Almeida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: O'Malley
O'Malley is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Almeida throws more volume but O'Malley connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
O'Malley's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Almeida has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
O'Malley
Almeida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
70"
31+
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
O'Malley
Almeida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.3
18.4
59.5
Performance Avg
50.6
47
Quality of Victory
51
95
Momentum Score
59
O'Malley
Almeida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.3
62%
Strike Accuracy
45%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
2
7
Body
0
7
Leg
3
RangeRange
31Distance5
1Clinch0
1Ground0
O'Malley
Almeida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.1
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
O'Malley
Almeida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
30
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
10/27 fights
O'Malley
Almeida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
59
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
O'Malley
Almeida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
80%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
O'Malley
Almeida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.6
O'MalleyAlmeida
Strike Zones
O'Malley
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedAlmeida
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯O'Malley targets the head (58% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Almeida targets the legs (60% of attacks) — O'Malley absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
O'Malley
RND
Almeida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
O'Malley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
O'Malley · Last 5
Upcoming
Aiemann ZahabiUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 5.8Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · Sub · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R5
Marlon VeraRating 5.3Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
Almeida · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Sean O'MalleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Rob FontRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · KO · R2
Albert MoralesRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11