★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
Toronto, Canada
21 Sept 2013
Light Heavyweight
VS
74%
Jones
26%
Gustafsson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jones
Jones is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Gustafsson throws more volume but Jones connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gustafsson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jones
Gustafsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'5"
84"+
Reach
79"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jones
Gustafsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
24.8
74.6
Performance Avg
50.3
61
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
39
Jones
Gustafsson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.2
58%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
17
2
Body
7
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance22
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Jones
Gustafsson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
6
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jones
Gustafsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/29 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Jones
Gustafsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
39
19-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Jones
Gustafsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
70%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
6
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jones
Gustafsson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
JonesGustafsson
Strike Zones
Jones
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedGustafsson
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the head (63% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jones
RND
Gustafsson
0/0R00/0
Jones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Gustafsson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Jones · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneRating 6.8Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithRating 5.7Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
Gustafsson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05