UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
Sydney, Australia
9 Sept 2023
Lightweight
VS
55%
Mullarkey
45%
Makdessi
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mullarkey
This is a genuine toss-up — Mullarkey at 55% vs Makdessi at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Makdessi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mullarkey's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Makdessi has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Mullarkey
Makdessi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
68"
31+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mullarkey
Makdessi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
30.9
40.0
Performance Avg
42.2
36
Quality of Victory
34
51
Momentum Score
51
Mullarkey
Makdessi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
20
1
Body
7
12
Leg
11
RangeRange
29Distance38
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Mullarkey
Makdessi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mullarkey
Makdessi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
20/27 fights
Mullarkey
Makdessi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
51
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Mullarkey
Makdessi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
27%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mullarkey
Makdessi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
MullarkeyMakdessi
Strike Zones
Mullarkey
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedMakdessi
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mullarkey targets the head (55% of attacks) — Makdessi absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Makdessi targets the head (53% of attacks) — Mullarkey absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mullarkey
RND
Makdessi
0/0R00/0
Mullarkey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Makdessi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Mullarkey · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6Submission
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UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
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L · Dec · R3
Jamie MullarkeyRating 5.7Decision
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