UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Fortaleza, Brazil
11 Mar 2017
Middleweight
VS
21%
McLellan
79%
Costa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:17
GM
Garreth McLellan
"Soldier Boy"
13 – 6
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw43 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 14
Paulo
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16 – 4
Striker2-fight win streak35 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'1"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Costa

Costa is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

McLellan's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

McLellan
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
72"
Reach
72"
43
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
McLellan
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.3
55.3
38.0
Performance Avg
52.9
50
Quality of Victory
44
20
Momentum Score
59
McLellan
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.9
55%
Strike Accuracy
59%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
18
4
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance16
1Clinch0
0Ground6
McLellan
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McLellan
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/19 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
McLellan
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
59
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
McLellan
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
63%
1
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McLellan
Costa
Striking10.0 / 7.6Volume0.4 / 4.3Grappling0.0 / 0.9Wrestling0.0 / 0.6Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
0.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
McLellan
Strike Zones
Costa
McLellan
Attacking
2HEAD4BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY1LEGS22 absorbed
Costa
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY1LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD4BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McLellan targets the body (67% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (82% of attacks) — McLellan absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McLellan
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

McLellan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.5L2.5L2015-042015-102016-052016-082017-03
WinLossTrend

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W3.5L6.3L4.5W6.4L6.6L5.5W7.4W2017-032018-072021-102024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

McLellan · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Paulo CostaRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · KO · R2
Magnus CedenbladRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · KO · R3
Bubba BushRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Bartosz FabinskiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04

Costa · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08

News & Media

Garreth McLellan · Paulo Costa
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