Garreth McLellan vs Paulo Costa — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum

Fortaleza, Brazil

11 Mar 2017

Middleweight

21%

McLellan

79%

Costa

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 1:17

Garreth McLellan

"Soldier Boy"

13 – 6

6'1"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist

CFR 14

Paulo Costa

"The Eraser"

16 – 4

Striker2-fight win streak35 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'1"

CFR 55

★ Official Result

Paulo CostawinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:17

def. Garreth McLellan · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Costa

→

Actual result

Costa wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Costa is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

McLellan's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

McLellanCosta

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

McLellan

Costa

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"

Height

6'1"

72"

Reach

72"

Age

+35

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

McLellan

Costa

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

14.3

55.3

38.0

Performance Avg

52.9

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

McLellan

Costa

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

10.0

/ 10

7.6

/ 10

7.6

Style: Pressure

6.4

0.4

Style: Volume

4.3

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

5Distance16

1Clinch0

0Ground6

McLellan

Costa

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.0

/ 10

0.9

/ 10

0.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.6

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

McLellan

Costa

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.5 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

6 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

5/19 fights

Chin rating based on

12/20 fights

McLellan

Costa

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

2-fight 🔥 win streak

L · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

W · KO · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

McLellan

Costa

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

100%

63%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McLellan

Costa

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

10.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

7.6

0.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.9

0.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.6

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

7.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.4

0.4

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.3

McLellan

Strike Zones

Costa

McLellan

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

22 absorbed

Costa

Attacking

22 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯McLellan targets the body (67% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 67% of strikes there

🎯Costa targets the head (82% of attacks) — McLellan absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McLellan

RND

Costa

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

McLellan · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Paulo Costa

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03

L · Dec · R3

Alessio Di Chirico

Decision

UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08

L · KO · R2

Magnus Cedenblad

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05

W · KO · R3

Bubba Bush

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10

L · Dec · R3

Bartosz Fabinski

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04

Costa · Last 5

W · KO · R3

Azamat Murzakanov

KO/TKO

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04

W · Dec · R3

Roman Kopylov

Decision

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07

L · Dec · R5

Sean Strickland

Decision

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

L · Dec · R3

Robert Whittaker

Decision

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

W · Dec · R3

Luke Rockhold

Decision

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08

News & Media

Garreth McLellan · Paulo Costa

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