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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
Orlando, USA
19 Dec 2015
Lightweight
VS
48%
Lentz
52%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
NL
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30 – 12
5'8"68" reachOrthodox41 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 17
★ Official Result
Nik LentzwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Danny Castillo · UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Castillo
→
Actual result
Lentz wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Lentz at 48% vs Castillo at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Lentz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lentz's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
LentzCastillo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lentz
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+71"
41+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lentz
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
17.2
45.3
Performance Avg
40.6
35
Quality of Victory
34
53
Momentum Score
89
Lentz
Castillo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
0.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
20
3
Body
1
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
19Distance22
3Clinch2
0Ground0
Lentz
Castillo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lentz
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/42 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Lentz
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
89
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Lentz
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
29%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lentz
Castillo
Striking3.4 / 3.9Volume6.4 / 6.7Grappling2.7 / 1.7Wrestling1.9 / 1.2Submission1.4 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Lentz
Strike Zones
Castillo
Lentz
Attacking
16HEAD3BODY3LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD1BODY3LEGS24 absorbed
Castillo
Attacking
20HEAD1BODY3LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD3BODY3LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lentz targets the head (73% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the head (83% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lentz
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0

Lentz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W5.5L4.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.4L4.5W5.2W7.5L5.2W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.2L6.9L6.8L2009-092012-012015-052018-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Lentz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

News & Media

Nik Lentz · Danny Castillo
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