UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
San Jose, USA
11 Jul 2012
Middleweight
VS
53%
Natal
47%
Craig
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:52
RN
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21 – 9
6'0"77" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
AC
Andrew Craig
"Highlight"
9 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'1"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Natal

This is a genuine toss-up — Natal at 53% vs Craig at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Natal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Craig has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Natal
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
77"+
Reach
76"
43
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Natal
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
13.6
40.5
Performance Avg
38.1
30
Quality of Victory
35
81
Momentum Score
35
Natal
Craig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
7
5
Body
2
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
21Distance11
10Clinch0
13Ground2
Natal
Craig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Natal
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
62
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
7/13 fights
Natal
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
35
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Natal
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Natal
Craig
Striking2.2 / 4.2Volume7.3 / 6.2Grappling2.8 / 1.6Wrestling1.9 / 1.1Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure3.2 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Natal
Strike Zones
Craig
Natal
Attacking
36HEAD5BODY3LEGS44 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY4LEGS13 absorbed
Craig
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY4LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
36HEAD5BODY3LEGS44 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (82% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the head (54% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 54% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Natal
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0

Natal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.7L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.4L1.5L2.3L2010-092013-012014-052016-012017-07
WinLossTrend

Craig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W2.8L5.5L2.8L2012-032013-012013-102015-07
WinLossTrend

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

Craig · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Lyman GoodRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Cezar FerreiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke BarnattRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Chris LebenRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Ronny MarkesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · 2013-01

News & Media

Rafael Natal · Andrew Craig
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