METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Women's Strawweight
VS
36%
Jedrzejczyk
64%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Joanna JedrzejczykwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tecia Pennington · UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pennington
→
Actual result
Jedrzejczyk wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Pennington holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Jedrzejczyk has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jedrzejczyk has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Jedrzejczyk's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JedrzejczykPennington
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'1"
65"+
Reach
60"
39
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.8
49.8
52.9
Performance Avg
39.8
44
Quality of Victory
28
58
Momentum Score
89
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
3.4
Style: Pressure
2.4
7.7
Style: Volume
7.7
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
11
Body
0
5
Leg
9
RangeRange
18Distance11
9Clinch1
0Ground0
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
9%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
JedrzejczykPennington
Strike Zones
Jedrzejczyk
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedPennington
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jedrzejczyk targets the head (41% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Jedrzejczyk absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jedrzejczyk
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0
Jedrzejczyk · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Zhang WeiliKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliDecision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
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Michelle Waterson-GomezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoDecision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesDecision
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Luana PinheiroDecision
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Carla EsparzaDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
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UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04