METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Calgary, Canada
28 Jul 2018
Women's Strawweight
VS
36%
Jedrzejczyk
64%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Joanna JedrzejczykwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tecia Pennington · UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pennington
→
Actual result
Jedrzejczyk wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Pennington holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Jedrzejczyk has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jedrzejczyk has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jedrzejczyk's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JedrzejczykPennington
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'1"
65"+
Reach
60"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.8
49.8
52.9
Performance Avg
39.8
44
Quality of Victory
28
58
Momentum Score
89
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
11
Body
0
5
Leg
9
RangeRange
18Distance11
9Clinch1
0Ground0
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
9%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jedrzejczyk
Pennington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
JedrzejczykPennington
Strike Zones
Jedrzejczyk
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedPennington
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jedrzejczyk targets the head (41% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Jedrzejczyk absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jedrzejczyk
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0
Jedrzejczyk · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Pennington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Jedrzejczyk · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4.6KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliRating 7.3Decision
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W · Dec · R5
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 4.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 4.8Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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