UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
17 Apr 2021
Women's Flyweight
VS
81%
Cortez
19%
Kish
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tracy
Tracy Cortez
12 – 3
5'5"65" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 49
JK
Justine Kish
7 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'5"
CFR 12

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cortez

Cortez is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Kish throws more volume but Cortez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Cortez
Kish
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
65"+
Reach
64"
32+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cortez
Kish
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
11.5
45.0
Performance Avg
32.1
25
Quality of Victory
25
75
Momentum Score
30
Cortez
Kish
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
12
9
Body
4
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
17Distance19
2Clinch1
5Ground1
Cortez
Kish
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cortez
Kish
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
82
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/15 fights
Chin rating based on
7/11 fights
Cortez
Kish
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
30
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Cortez
Kish
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cortez
Kish
Striking1.5 / 0.9Volume9.5 / 8.9Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.3 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
9.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
Cortez
Strike Zones
Kish
Cortez
Attacking
13HEAD9BODY2LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD4BODY5LEGS21 absorbed
Kish
Attacking
12HEAD4BODY5LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD9BODY2LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cortez targets the head (54% of attacks) — Kish absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Kish targets the head (57% of attacks) — Cortez absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cortez
RND
Kish
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Cortez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.5W4.5W5.4W5.4W6.9L5.2W4.3L2019-112021-042023-092025-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Kish · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L6.2L2016-012017-062020-012021-04
WinLossTrend

Cortez · Last 5

Upcoming
Wang Cong
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Sub · R2
Erin BlanchfieldRating 4.3
Submission
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Jasmine JasudaviciusRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

Kish · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tracy CortezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R3
Sabina MazoRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Ji Yeon KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Felice HerrigRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06

News & Media

Tracy Cortez · Justine Kish
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