UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
London, United Kingdom
8 Mar 2014
Welterweight
VS
65%
Nelson
35%
Akhmedov
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Akhmedov has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Akhmedov throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Akhmedov has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Akhmedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Akhmedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
30.2
52.8
Performance Avg
47.0
46
Quality of Victory
36
61
Momentum Score
100
Nelson
Akhmedov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.9
69%
Strike Accuracy
34%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
1
0
Body
2
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance6
0Clinch0
14Ground0
Nelson
Akhmedov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Akhmedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
40
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
15/27 fights
Nelson
Akhmedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
100
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Nelson
Akhmedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
8
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Akhmedov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
NelsonAkhmedov
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedAkhmedov
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (94% of attacks) — Akhmedov absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Akhmedov targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Akhmedov
0/0R00/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Akhmedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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Akhmedov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
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