The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale
Las Vegas, USA
13 Dec 2008
Middleweight
VS
55%
Gouveia
45%
MacDonald
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:18
WG
Wilson Gouveia
14 – 8
6'1"76" reachOrthodox47 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 21
JM
Jason MacDonald
"The Athlete"
25 – 16
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'3"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gouveia

This is a genuine toss-up — Gouveia at 55% vs MacDonald at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Gouveia throws more volume but MacDonald connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Gouveia's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

MacDonald has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gouveia
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
+80"
47+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gouveia
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
17.3
56.2
Performance Avg
48.8
54
Quality of Victory
53
72
Momentum Score
52
Gouveia
MacDonald
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
0
0
Body
1
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch4
14Ground0
Gouveia
MacDonald
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gouveia
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/22 fights
Chin rating based on
14/41 fights
Gouveia
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Gouveia
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
4
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gouveia
MacDonald
Striking4.5 / 4.2Volume1.2 / 0.9Grappling5.3 / 5.3Wrestling3.7 / 3.7Submission6.7 / 6.7Pressure8.8 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Gouveia
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Gouveia
Attacking
17HEAD0BODY1LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY5LEGS6 absorbed
MacDonald
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY5LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD0BODY1LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gouveia targets the head (94% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the legs (83% of attacks) — Gouveia absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gouveia
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Gouveia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W5.0W4.0L1.5L2006-062007-052008-092009-12
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0105.2W5.2W2.8L5.2W5.5L5.2W4.0L5.2W1.5L1.5L1.5L5.0W1.5L1.5L2006-102007-102008-122011-092012-05
WinLossTrend

Gouveia · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · KO · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson · 2009-02
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12
W · Sub · R2
Ryan JensenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer · 2008-09
L · KO · R2
Goran ReljicRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 84: Ill Will · 2008-05

MacDonald · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom LawlorRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R1
Ryan JensenRating 5
Submission
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
L · KO · R1
John SalterRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Nate QuarryRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04

News & Media

Wilson Gouveia · Jason MacDonald
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