METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Women's Bantamweight
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Women's Bantamweight
VS
47%
Nunes
53%
Pena
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:26
★ Official Result
Julianna PenawinsSubmissionR2 · 3:26
def. Amanda Nunes · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pena
→
Actual result
Pena wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nunes at 47% vs Pena at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nunes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Nunes's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pena has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NunesPena
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nunes
Pena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
69"
Reach
69"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nunes
Pena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.2
65.6
75.2
Performance Avg
58.0
66
Quality of Victory
52
100
Momentum Score
100
Nunes
Pena
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.2
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
5.5
4.8
Style: Volume
5.3
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
64
0
Body
10
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
36Distance73
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Nunes
Pena
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
1.9
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nunes
Pena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
62
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
15 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Nunes
Pena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
Nunes
Pena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nunes
Pena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
1.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
NunesPena
Strike Zones
Nunes
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
74 absorbedPena
Attacking
74 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nunes targets the head (89% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Pena targets the head (86% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nunes
RND
Pena
0/0R00/0
Nunes · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Irene AldanaDecision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaDecision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
L · Sub · R2
Julianna PenaSubmission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R1
Megan AndersonSubmission
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Felicia SpencerDecision
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
Pena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonSubmission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesDecision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Amanda NunesSubmission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R3
Sara McMannSubmission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01