★ Championship Bout · Women's Bantamweight
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Women's Bantamweight
VS
47%
Nunes
53%
Pena
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pena
This is a genuine toss-up — Nunes at 47% vs Pena at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nunes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Pena throws more volume but Nunes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nunes's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pena has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nunes
Pena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
69"
Reach
69"
37
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nunes
Pena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.2
65.6
75.2
Performance Avg
58.0
66
Quality of Victory
52
100
Momentum Score
100
Nunes
Pena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
64
0
Body
10
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
36Distance73
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Nunes
Pena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
1.9
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nunes
Pena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
62
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
15 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Nunes
Pena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
Nunes
Pena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nunes
Pena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
1.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
NunesPena
Strike Zones
Nunes
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
74 absorbedPena
Attacking
74 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nunes targets the head (89% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Pena targets the head (86% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nunes
RND
Pena
0/0R00/0
Nunes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Pena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Nunes · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Irene AldanaRating 5.3Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 6Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
L · Sub · R2
Julianna PenaRating 3.7Submission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R1
Megan AndersonRating 5Submission
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Felicia SpencerRating 4.8Decision
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
Pena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonRating 4.3Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonRating 5.1Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Amanda NunesRating 6.3Submission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R3
Sara McMannRating 5.5Submission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01