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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Norfolk, USA
29 Feb 2020
Featherweight
VS
8%
Cruz
92%
Carlyle
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:25
Aalon
Aalon Cruz
84
6'0"78" reachSwitch36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 2
SC
Spike Carlyle
"Alpha Ginger"
93
Knockout Artist2-fight slide33 yrsSwitch71" reach5'8"
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Spike CarlylewinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:25
def. Aalon Cruz · UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Carlyle
Actual result
Carlyle wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

Carlyle is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Carlyle has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 60 points.

Risk flags

Cruz's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
CruzCarlyle
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
Cruz
Carlyle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'8"
78"+
Reach
71"
36
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Switch
Cruz
Carlyle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.6
19.2
0.0
Performance Avg
49.3
0
Quality of Victory
60
0
Momentum Score
35
Cruz
Carlyle
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
8.0
0.0
Style: Volume
0.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
19
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch4
0Ground14
Cruz
Carlyle
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Cruz
Carlyle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
96
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Strikes absorbed / min
2/12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Cruz
Carlyle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Cruz
Carlyle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cruz
Carlyle
Striking0.0 / 10.0Volume0.0 / 0.7Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Cruz
Strike Zones
Carlyle
Cruz
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD0BODY1LEGS20 absorbed
Carlyle
Attacking
19HEAD0BODY1LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cruz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Carlyle absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Carlyle targets the head (95% of attacks) — Cruz absorbs 95% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cruz
RND
Carlyle
0/0R00/0

Cruz · Last 2

L · KO · R1
Uros Medic
KO/TKO
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · KO · R1
Spike Carlyle
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02

Carlyle · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Bill Algeo
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
L · Dec · R3
Billy Quarantillo
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Aalon Cruz
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02

News & Media

Aalon Cruz · Spike Carlyle
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