UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Vancouver, Canada
27 Aug 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
58%
VanZant
42%
Rawlings
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: VanZant
This is a genuine toss-up — VanZant at 58% vs Rawlings at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Rawlings throws more volume but VanZant connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
VanZant's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
VanZant
Rawlings
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
65"+
Reach
64"
32+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
VanZant
Rawlings
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
15.0
49.2
Performance Avg
35.1
45
Quality of Victory
40
84
Momentum Score
53
VanZant
Rawlings
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.9
58%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
0
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
7Ground0
VanZant
Rawlings
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
VanZant
Rawlings
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
70
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/13 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
VanZant
Rawlings
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
53
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
VanZant
Rawlings
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
VanZant
Rawlings
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
VanZantRawlings
Strike Zones
VanZant
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedRawlings
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯VanZant targets the head (89% of attacks) — Rawlings absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
VanZant
RND
Rawlings
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
VanZant · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Rawlings · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
VanZant · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Amanda RibasRating 1.6Submission
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · Sub · R2
Rachael OstovichRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Dec · R3
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · Sub · R1
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · KO · R2
Bec RawlingsRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
Rawlings · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ashlee Evans-SmithRating 5.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · Dec · R3
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02
L · KO · R2
Paige VanZantRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Seo Hee HamRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03