UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
23 May 2015
Welterweight
VS
24%
Pyle
76%
Covington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Covington
Covington is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pyle has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pyle's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Covington has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pyle
Covington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
72"
50
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pyle
Covington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
61.2
47.8
Performance Avg
53.2
45
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
100
Pyle
Covington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
38%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
10
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
5Ground10
Pyle
Covington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pyle
Covington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/41 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Pyle
Covington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Pyle
Covington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
42%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pyle
Covington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
PyleCovington
Strike Zones
Pyle
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedCovington
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pyle targets the head (86% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pyle absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pyle
RND
Covington
0/0R00/0
Pyle · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Pyle · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zak OttowRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Alex GarciaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · KO · R2
Alberto MinaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · KO · R3
Sean SpencerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09