UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
Goiania, Brazil
30 May 2015
Welterweight
VS
10%
Dutra
90%
Breese
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:58
LD
Luiz Dutra
"Besouro"
13 – 6
5'11"Orthodox44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 2
TB
Tom Breese
12 – 3
Knockout Artist34 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'3"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Breese

Breese is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 53 points.

Striking split: Dutra throws more volume but Breese connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Breese has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Dutra
Breese
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
Reach
73"
44
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Dutra
Breese
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.1
19.7
0.0
Performance Avg
56.8
0
Quality of Victory
53
0
Momentum Score
46
Dutra
Breese
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
6.2
2.3
51%
Strike Accuracy
54%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
11
9
Body
11
5
Leg
4
RangeRange
10Distance8
11Clinch11
0Ground7
Dutra
Breese
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Dutra
Breese
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/19 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Dutra
Breese
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
46
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Dutra
Breese
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dutra
Breese
Striking0.0 / 9.3Volume0.0 / 2.9Grappling0.0 / 0.5Wrestling0.0 / 0.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Dutra
Strike Zones
Breese
Dutra
Attacking
7HEAD9BODY5LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD11BODY4LEGS26 absorbed
Breese
Attacking
11HEAD11BODY4LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD9BODY5LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dutra targets the body (43% of attacks) — Breese absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Breese targets the head (42% of attacks) — Dutra absorbs 42% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dutra
RND
Breese
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Dutra · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.8
0104.0L1.5L2014-012015-05
WinLossTrend

Breese · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W4.5W6.6L5.0W2.8L5.0W2.8L2015-052016-022018-052020-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Dutra · Last 2

L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · 2015-05
L · R1
Kiichi KunimotoRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim · 2014-01

Breese · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Omari AkhmedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB BhullarRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel KellyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06

News & Media

Luiz Dutra · Tom Breese
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