UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Newark, USA
6 May 2023
Featherweight
VS
50%
Gracie
50%
Jourdain
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Kron
Kron Gracie
5 – 3
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 50
Charles
Charles Jourdain
"Air"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak30 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gracie

This is a genuine toss-up — Gracie at 50% vs Jourdain at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gracie has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Jourdain has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Jourdain has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gracie
Jourdain
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Gracie
Jourdain
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.3
50.4
42.4
Performance Avg
48.6
54
Quality of Victory
44
43
Momentum Score
51
Gracie
Jourdain
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
23
0
Body
8
1
Leg
7
RangeRange
10Distance27
0Clinch6
0Ground5
Gracie
Jourdain
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
4.4
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
1
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gracie
Jourdain
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/8 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Gracie
Jourdain
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
51
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Gracie
Jourdain
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
4
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gracie
Jourdain
Striking0.5 / 3.4Volume0.5 / 3.8Grappling8.0 / 4.4Wrestling5.6 / 3.0Submission10.0 / 4.4Pressure7.8 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Gracie
Strike Zones
Jourdain
Gracie
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD8BODY7LEGS38 absorbed
Jourdain
Attacking
23HEAD8BODY7LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gracie targets the head (90% of attacks) — Jourdain absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Jourdain targets the head (61% of attacks) — Gracie absorbs 61% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gracie
RND
Jourdain
0/0R00/0

Gracie · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.2W6.0L6.3L5.0L2019-022019-102023-052024-12
WinLossTrend

Jourdain · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L7.0W6.2L5.5W4.2L4.5W5.5W5.5L6.3L5.3W5.1W6.6L4.3L6.1W5.8W5.2W2019-052021-092022-092024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Gracie · Last 4

L · KO · R3
Bryce MitchellRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
W · Sub · R1
Alex CaceresRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02

Jourdain · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Davey GrantRating 5.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · Sub · R2
Victor HenryRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

News & Media

Kron Gracie · Charles Jourdain
← Back to fights