METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2016
Middleweight
VS
22%
Ferreira
78%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Cezar FerreirawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Anthony Smith · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smith
→
Actual result
Ferreira wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Smith is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ferreira's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FerreiraSmith
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferreira
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
78"+
Reach
76"
41
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ferreira
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.6
58.3
49.5
Performance Avg
50.7
43
Quality of Victory
50
58
Momentum Score
100
Ferreira
Smith
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
6.9
6.5
Style: Volume
2.3
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
1Ground1
Ferreira
Smith
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
3.9
3
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferreira
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Ferreira
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Ferreira
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
77%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
3
Submission Wins
5
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferreira
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
FerreiraSmith
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSmith
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (60% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (80% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferreira
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Ferreira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriDecision
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischDecision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R1
Karl RobersonSubmission
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Nate MarquardtDecision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesKO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeDecision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoSubmission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12