The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2016
Middleweight
VS
22%
Ferreira
78%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
Smith is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferreira's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferreira
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
78"+
Reach
76"
41
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ferreira
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.6
58.3
49.5
Performance Avg
50.7
43
Quality of Victory
50
58
Momentum Score
100
Ferreira
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.3
39%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
1Ground1
Ferreira
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferreira
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Ferreira
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Ferreira
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
77%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
3
Submission Wins
5
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferreira
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
FerreiraSmith
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSmith
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (60% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (80% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferreira
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Ferreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ferreira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R1
Karl RobersonRating 5Submission
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12