UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Montreal, Canada
25 Apr 2015
Catch Weight
VS
80%
Makdessi
20%
Campbell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:53
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Makdessi
Makdessi is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Makdessi throws more volume but Campbell connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Makdessi's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Campbell has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Makdessi
Campbell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'0"
68"
Reach
+71"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Makdessi
Campbell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.9
7.5
42.2
Performance Avg
23.0
34
Quality of Victory
25
51
Momentum Score
15
Makdessi
Campbell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
2.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
56%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
39
Head
5
7
Body
7
1
Leg
13
RangeRange
26Distance24
6Clinch1
15Ground0
Makdessi
Campbell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Makdessi
Campbell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
42
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/27 fights
Chin rating based on
5/20 fights
Makdessi
Campbell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
15
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Makdessi
Campbell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Makdessi
Campbell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
MakdessiCampbell
Strike Zones
Makdessi
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedCampbell
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Makdessi targets the head (83% of attacks) — Campbell absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Campbell targets the legs (52% of attacks) — Makdessi absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Makdessi
RND
Campbell
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Makdessi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Campbell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.2WinLossTrend
Makdessi · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jamie MullarkeyRating 5.7Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · 2022-09
W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Dec · R3
Jesus PinedoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Campbell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Felipe SilvaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · Sub · R2
Erik KochRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · Dec · R3
James KrauseRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Dec · R3
Elias SilverioRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
John MakdessiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04