UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Las Vegas, USA
5 Apr 2025
Middleweight
VS
39%
Tavares
61%
Meerschaert
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Meerschaert
Meerschaert holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Tavares has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Meerschaert has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Meerschaert has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Meerschaert has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tavares
Meerschaert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+77"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Tavares
Meerschaert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
56.7
40.1
Performance Avg
48.2
29
Quality of Victory
50
49
Momentum Score
91
Tavares
Meerschaert
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
4
3
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Tavares
Meerschaert
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
7.3
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Meerschaert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/34 fights
Chin rating based on
26/59 fights
Tavares
Meerschaert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
91
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Tavares
Meerschaert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
11
14
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tavares
Meerschaert
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
7.3
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
9.2
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
TavaresMeerschaert
Strike Zones
Tavares
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedMeerschaert
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (50% of attacks) — Meerschaert absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Meerschaert targets the head (57% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tavares
RND
Meerschaert
0/0R00/0
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Meerschaert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Tavares · Last 5
Upcoming
Marc-Andre BarriaultUFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R3
Robert BryczekRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
Meerschaert · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1Submission
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Reinier de RidderRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11