UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
Fort Campbell, USA
6 Nov 2013
Lightweight
VS
29%
Smith
71%
Chiesa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiesa
Chiesa is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 57 points.
Striking split: Chiesa throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chiesa has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smith
Chiesa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+75"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Smith
Chiesa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
50.7
70.0
Performance Avg
53.3
100
Quality of Victory
43
28
Momentum Score
50
Smith
Chiesa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
0.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
4
3
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance5
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Smith
Chiesa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
5.8
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.0
0
Submission wins
9
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Chiesa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
36
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
22/27 fights
Smith
Chiesa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
50
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Smith
Chiesa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
9
1
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Chiesa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
SmithChiesa
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedChiesa
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the body (75% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Chiesa targets the head (80% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Chiesa
0/0R00/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Diego FerreiraRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
W · Dec · R3
Mike RicciRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
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W · Dec · R3
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W · Sub · R1
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