UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Seattle, USA
22 Feb 2025
Middleweight
VS
49%
Allen
51%
Hernandez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Brendan
Brendan Allen
"All In"
26 – 7
6'2"75" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 62
AH
Anthony Hernandez
"Fluffy"
15 – 3
Pressure Fighter32 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hernandez

This is a genuine toss-up — Allen at 49% vs Hernandez at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Allen throws more volume but Hernandez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Allen's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hernandez has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Allen
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
75"
Reach
75"
30+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Allen
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.8
63.7
56.8
Performance Avg
56.2
43
Quality of Victory
44
88
Momentum Score
98
Allen
Hernandez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
66%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
14
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance11
2Clinch0
0Ground3
Allen
Hernandez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Allen
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
12 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/33 fights
Chin rating based on
12/18 fights
Allen
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
98
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R5
W · Sub · R2
Allen
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
78%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
7
Submission Wins
5
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Allen
Hernandez
Striking3.0 / 3.7Volume4.4 / 3.3Grappling4.9 / 5.0Wrestling3.4 / 3.5Submission5.0 / 5.6Pressure6.8 / 7.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
4.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.6
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Allen
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Allen
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Hernandez
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Allen targets the head (80% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Allen
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0

Allen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.8W5.0W5.1W3.9L5.0W5.5W3.5L5.2W5.5W5.0W6.4W6.3W6.0W5.2W6.9L6.9L5.3W6.4W2019-102021-072023-022025-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Hernandez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0102.8L6.3W2.1L6.5W4.5W5.5W6.9W6.2W6.1W5.8W6.8W3.9L2019-022021-022023-052025-022026-02
WinLossTrend

Allen · Last 5

Upcoming
Edmen Shahbazyan
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R4
Reinier de RidderRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Nassourdine ImavovRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

Hernandez · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Sean StricklandRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R4
Roman DolidzeRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Brendan AllenRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · KO · R5
Michel PereiraRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R2
Roman KopylovRating 6.2
Submission
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

News & Media

Brendan Allen · Anthony Hernandez
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