UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Salt Lake City, USA
20 Aug 2022
Lightweight
VS
46%
Santos
54%
Gordon
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LS
Leonardo Santos
18 – 7
6'0"75" reachOrthodox46 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 36
Jared
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
21 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'9"
CFR 42

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gordon

This is a genuine toss-up — Santos at 46% vs Gordon at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Gordon has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Santos's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gordon has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Santos
Gordon
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
68"
46
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Gordon
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.1
42.1
57.5
Performance Avg
42.8
49
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
63
Santos
Gordon
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.6
49%
Strike Accuracy
54%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
35
2
Body
11
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
12Distance40
1Clinch6
0Ground4
Santos
Gordon
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Gordon
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
18/30 fights
Santos
Gordon
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Santos
Gordon
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Santos
Gordon
Striking4.3 / 4.4Volume4.8 / 6.4Grappling3.3 / 1.6Wrestling2.3 / 1.1Submission2.9 / 0.0Pressure6.1 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
Santos
Strike Zones
Gordon
Santos
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
35HEAD11BODY4LEGS50 absorbed
Gordon
Attacking
35HEAD11BODY4LEGS50 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (77% of attacks) — Gordon absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Gordon targets the head (70% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Santos
RND
Gordon
0/0R00/0

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L3.2L5.9L2013-062015-122020-072022-08
WinLossTrend

Gordon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W4.5W2.5L4.6L4.5W2.9L4.5W4.5W5.2W5.5L4.6W7.2L5.2W6.2L5.2W4.8L1.9L2017-062019-112022-082025-092026-05
WinLossTrend

Santos · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
L · KO · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman BogatovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06

Gordon · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Thiago MoisesRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Mark MadsenRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Leonardo Santos · Jared Gordon
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