METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping
London, United Kingdom
27 Feb 2016
Welterweight
VS
59%
Breese
41%
Nakamura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TB
Tom Breese
12 – 3
6'3"73" reachSouthpaw34 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 20
KN
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
34 – 10
Well-Rounded42 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'11"
CFR 14
★ Official Result
Tom BreesewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Keita Nakamura · UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Breese
→
Actual result
Breese wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Breese at 59% vs Nakamura at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Breese has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Breese's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
BreeseNakamura
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Breese
Nakamura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
73"
34+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Breese
Nakamura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.7
13.7
56.8
Performance Avg
36.2
53
Quality of Victory
36
46
Momentum Score
26
Breese
Nakamura
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
0.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
37%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Breese
Nakamura
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Breese
Nakamura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Breese
Nakamura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
26
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Breese
Nakamura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Breese
Nakamura
Striking9.3 / 0.7Volume2.9 / 4.7Grappling0.5 / 5.2Wrestling0.3 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure7.5 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Breese
Strike Zones
Nakamura
Breese
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Nakamura
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Breese targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Breese
RND
Nakamura
0/0R00/0

Breese · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W4.5W6.6L5.0W2.8L5.0W2.8L2015-052016-022018-052020-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Nakamura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5L5.5L6.3W5.5L5.2W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2006-122015-092016-102018-122019-04
WinLossTrend

Breese · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Omari AkhmedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB BhullarRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel KellyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06

Nakamura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10

News & Media

Tom Breese · Keita Nakamura
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