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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping
London, United Kingdom
27 Feb 2016
Welterweight
VS
59%
Breese
41%
Nakamura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TB
Tom Breese
123
6'3"73" reachSouthpaw34 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 20
KN
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
3410
Well-Rounded42 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'11"
CFR 14
★ Official Result
Tom BreesewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Keita Nakamura · UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Breese
Actual result
Breese wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Breese at 59% vs Nakamura at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Risk flags

Breese's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
BreeseNakamura
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
Breese
Nakamura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
73"
34+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Breese
Nakamura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.7
13.7
56.8
Performance Avg
36.2
53
Quality of Victory
36
46
Momentum Score
26
Breese
Nakamura
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
7.5
Style: Pressure
4.6
2.9
Style: Volume
4.7
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Breese
Nakamura
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Breese
Nakamura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Strikes absorbed / min
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Breese
Nakamura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
26
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Breese
Nakamura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Breese
Nakamura
Striking9.3 / 0.7Volume2.9 / 4.7Grappling0.5 / 5.2Wrestling0.3 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure7.5 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Breese
Strike Zones
Nakamura
Breese
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Nakamura
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Breese targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Breese
RND
Nakamura
0/0R00/0

Breese · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Omari Akhmedov
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB Bhullar
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan Allen
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel Kelly
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean Strickland
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06

Nakamura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sultan Aliev
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim Touahri
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco Martin
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex Morono
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10

News & Media

Tom Breese · Keita Nakamura
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