UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Melbourne, Australia
26 Nov 2016
Lightweight
VS
85%
Matthews
15%
Holbrook
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
Matthews is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Matthews has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Matthews has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holbrook has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Matthews
Holbrook
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
70"
31+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Matthews
Holbrook
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
9.5
48.3
Performance Avg
31.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
25
Matthews
Holbrook
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
1
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance6
0Clinch2
1Ground3
Matthews
Holbrook
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Holbrook
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
34
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Matthews
Holbrook
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
25
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Matthews
Holbrook
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Holbrook
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
MatthewsHolbrook
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedHolbrook
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (80% of attacks) — Holbrook absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Holbrook targets the head (64% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Holbrook
0/0R00/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Holbrook · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Holbrook · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Thibault GoutiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · KO · R1
Joaquim SilvaRating 2.1KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Ramsey NijemRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07