METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Melbourne, Australia
26 Nov 2016
Lightweight
VS
85%
Matthews
15%
Holbrook
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Andrew HolbrookwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jake Matthews · UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Matthews
→
Actual result
Holbrook wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Matthews is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Matthews has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holbrook has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MatthewsHolbrook
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Matthews
Holbrook
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
70"
32+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Matthews
Holbrook
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.2
9.5
48.4
Performance Avg
31.0
36
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
25
Matthews
Holbrook
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
5.1
Style: Pressure
1.2
5.3
Style: Volume
8.8
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
1
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance6
0Clinch2
1Ground3
Matthews
Holbrook
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Matthews
Holbrook
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
34
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Matthews
Holbrook
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
25
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Matthews
Holbrook
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Holbrook
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
MatthewsHolbrook
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedHolbrook
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (80% of attacks) — Holbrook absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Holbrook targets the head (64% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Holbrook
0/0R00/0
Matthews · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoDecision
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W · Dec · R3
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Holbrook · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Thibault GoutiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieKO/TKO
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · KO · R1
Joaquim SilvaKO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Ramsey NijemDecision
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