UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
Las Vegas, USA
29 Dec 2012
Lightweight
VS
56%
Guillard
44%
Varner
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MG
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32 – 18
5'9"71" reachOrthodox43 yrsStriker
CFR 18
JV
Jamie Varner
21 – 11
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'8"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guillard

This is a genuine toss-up — Guillard at 56% vs Varner at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Varner has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guillard's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Varner has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guillard
Varner
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guillard
Varner
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
13.9
49.7
Performance Avg
41.1
45
Quality of Victory
46
73
Momentum Score
33
Guillard
Varner
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
44%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
3
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance2
1Clinch1
5Ground0
Guillard
Varner
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guillard
Varner
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
18
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
6
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/50 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Guillard
Varner
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Guillard
Varner
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
67%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guillard
Varner
Striking7.0 / 4.0Volume3.8 / 3.3Grappling0.8 / 3.5Wrestling0.6 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure5.8 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Guillard
Strike Zones
Varner
Guillard
Attacking
7HEAD5BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Varner
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD5BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guillard targets the head (58% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Varner targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guillard
RND
Varner
0/0R00/0

Guillard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.2W1.5L5.0W5.2W1.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L1.9L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W5.6L2005-112008-072011-012012-122014-03
WinLossTrend

Varner · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.0L5.0W5.5W4.0L4.5W5.5L2.8L1.5L2.7L2006-082012-082014-022014-12
WinLossTrend

Guillard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross Pearson
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08

Varner · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7
Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12

News & Media

Melvin Guillard · Jamie Varner
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