METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
Las Vegas, USA
29 Dec 2012
Lightweight
VS
56%
Guillard
44%
Varner
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jamie VarnerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Melvin Guillard · UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guillard
→
Actual result
Varner wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Guillard at 56% vs Varner at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Guillard's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Varner has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuillardVarner
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guillard
Varner
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
43
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guillard
Varner
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
13.9
49.7
Performance Avg
41.1
45
Quality of Victory
46
73
Momentum Score
33
Guillard
Varner
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.0
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
5.7
3.8
Style: Volume
3.3
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
3
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance2
1Clinch1
5Ground0
Guillard
Varner
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Guillard
Varner
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
18
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
6
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/50 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Guillard
Varner
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Guillard
Varner
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
67%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guillard
Varner
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
GuillardVarner
Strike Zones
Guillard
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedVarner
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guillard targets the head (58% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Varner targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guillard
RND
Varner
0/0R00/0
Guillard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerDecision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneKO/TKO
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Varner · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberSubmission
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L · KO · R1
James KrauseKO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauDecision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardDecision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12