The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2017
Lightweight
VS
36%
Johnson
64%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
Gaethje holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Johnson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johnson
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
73"+
Reach
70"
39
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
66.1
42.5
Performance Avg
63.6
38
Quality of Victory
62
35
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Gaethje
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.1
39%
Strike Accuracy
62%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
39
24
Body
3
1
Leg
12
RangeRange
42Distance39
6Clinch15
0Ground0
Johnson
Gaethje
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Johnson
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Johnson
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
60%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
JohnsonGaethje
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
54 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
54 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the body (50% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (72% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 72% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07