METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2017
Lightweight
VS
35%
Johnson
65%
Gaethje
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:48
★ Official Result
Justin GaethjewinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:48
def. Michael Johnson · The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Gaethje wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Gaethje holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Johnson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gaethje has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonGaethje
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
73"+
Reach
70"
40
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
67.6
42.5
Performance Avg
65.5
38
Quality of Victory
63
35
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Gaethje
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
7.7
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
6.5
6.0
Style: Volume
4.3
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
39
24
Body
3
1
Leg
12
RangeRange
42Distance39
6Clinch15
0Ground0
Johnson
Gaethje
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johnson
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Johnson
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
100
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Johnson
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
64%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Gaethje
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
JohnsonGaethje
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
54 absorbedGaethje
Attacking
54 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the body (50% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (72% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 72% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Gaethje
0/0R00/0
Johnson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Drew DoberKO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Gaethje · Last 5
W · KO · R4
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07