UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
Perth, Australia
10 Feb 2018
Welterweight
VS
52%
Matthews
48%
Jingliang
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
This is a genuine toss-up — Matthews at 52% vs Jingliang at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Jingliang has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Jingliang throws more volume but Matthews connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jingliang has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Matthews
Jingliang
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
73"+
Reach
71"
31+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Jingliang
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
50.8
48.3
Performance Avg
53.1
37
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
69
Matthews
Jingliang
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.0
46%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
11
0
Body
3
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance14
1Clinch2
7Ground3
Matthews
Jingliang
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Jingliang
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
18/28 fights
Matthews
Jingliang
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
69
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Matthews
Jingliang
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
73%
1
KO / TKO Wins
8
6
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Jingliang
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
MatthewsJingliang
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedJingliang
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (95% of attacks) — Jingliang absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Jingliang targets the head (58% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Jingliang
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Jingliang · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
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Jingliang · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Sub · R1
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