UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
Las Vegas, USA
15 Aug 2020
Featherweight
VS
45%
Burns
55%
Pineda
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:37
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pineda
This is a genuine toss-up — Burns at 45% vs Pineda at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pineda has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Burns
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
73"+
Reach
69"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.8
52.9
47.5
Performance Avg
47.4
57
Quality of Victory
53
39
Momentum Score
85
Burns
Pineda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.1
42%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
31
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground31
Burns
Pineda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burns
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
44
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Burns
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
85
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Burns
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
4
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Pineda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
BurnsPineda
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedPineda
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (83% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Pineda targets the head (94% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Pineda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jack JenkinsRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Julio ArceRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Bill AlgeoRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Daniel PinedaRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · Sub · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
Pineda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Upcoming
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