METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
San Antonio, USA
28 Jun 2014
Welterweight
VS
73%
Gastelum
27%
Musoke
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kelvin GastelumwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Nicholas Musoke · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gastelum
→
Actual result
Gastelum wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Gastelum is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gastelum has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GastelumMusoke
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gastelum
Musoke
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+75"
34+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Musoke
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
15.7
47.4
Performance Avg
40.8
42
Quality of Victory
35
28
Momentum Score
53
Gastelum
Musoke
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
1.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
33%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
6
7
Body
3
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
18Distance9
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Gastelum
Musoke
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Musoke
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Gastelum
Musoke
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
53
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Gastelum
Musoke
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Musoke
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
GastelumMusoke
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedMusoke
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (61% of attacks) — Musoke absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Musoke targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Musoke
0/0R00/0
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Musoke · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
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Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
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Musoke · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Bojan VelickovicRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Albert TumenovRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Alexander YakovlevRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Viscardi AndradeRating 4.5Decision
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