UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
San Antonio, USA
28 Jun 2014
Welterweight
VS
73%
Gastelum
27%
Musoke
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Kelvin
Kelvin Gastelum
21 – 11
5'9"71" reachSouthpaw34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 41
NM
Nicholas Musoke
"Nico"
13 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gastelum

Gastelum is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gastelum has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gastelum
Musoke
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+75"
34+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Musoke
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
15.7
47.4
Performance Avg
40.8
42
Quality of Victory
35
28
Momentum Score
53
Gastelum
Musoke
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
33%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
6
7
Body
3
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
18Distance9
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Gastelum
Musoke
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Musoke
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Gastelum
Musoke
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
53
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Gastelum
Musoke
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gastelum
Musoke
Striking3.3 / 1.0Volume6.3 / 6.3Grappling2.7 / 4.3Wrestling1.9 / 3.0Submission1.4 / 3.3Pressure4.2 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Gastelum
Strike Zones
Musoke
Gastelum
Attacking
14HEAD7BODY2LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Musoke
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD7BODY2LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (61% of attacks) — Musoke absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Musoke targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gastelum
RND
Musoke
0/0R00/0

Gastelum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W6.1L4.5W5.5W3.6L5.0W4.5W6.9L5.5L2.4L4.5W6.4L6.5L5.2W5.1L5.4W7.5L4.5W3.0L2013-042015-112019-112024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Musoke · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.5W5.8L4.5W5.5L4.0L2013-102014-022014-062014-102015-012017-05
WinLossTrend

Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3
Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

Musoke · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Bojan VelickovicRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Albert TumenovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Alexander YakovlevRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Viscardi AndradeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02

News & Media

Kelvin Gastelum · Nicholas Musoke
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