UFC 78: Validation
Newark, USA
17 Nov 2007
Lightweight
VS
59%
Edgar
41%
Fisher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edgar
This is a genuine toss-up — Edgar at 59% vs Fisher at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Edgar has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Edgar's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fisher has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Edgar
Fisher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
68"
44+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Edgar
Fisher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.4
17.7
48.0
Performance Avg
43.8
39
Quality of Victory
38
68
Momentum Score
89
Edgar
Fisher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
3
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch1
9Ground0
Edgar
Fisher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edgar
Fisher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
24
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/34 fights
Chin rating based on
17/33 fights
Edgar
Fisher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
68
89
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Edgar
Fisher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
44%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
12
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edgar
Fisher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
EdgarFisher
Strike Zones
Edgar
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedFisher
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edgar targets the head (70% of attacks) — Fisher absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Fisher targets the head (50% of attacks) — Edgar absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edgar
RND
Fisher
0/0R00/0
Edgar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Fisher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Edgar · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Chris GutierrezRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
L · KO · R3
Marlon VeraRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · KO · R1
Cory SandhagenRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · Dec · R5
Pedro MunhozRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Chan Sung JungRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12
Fisher · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sam StoutRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
L · KO · R2
Thiago TavaresRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Ross PearsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Curt WarburtonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale · 2010-06