★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Las Vegas, USA
4 Oct 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
46%
Ankalaev
54%
Pereira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:20
Magomed
Magomed Ankalaev
21 – 2
6'3"75" reachOrthodox33 yrsStriker
CFR 66
Alex
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
13 – 3
Knockout Artist38 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'4"
CFR 77

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pereira

This is a genuine toss-up — Ankalaev at 46% vs Pereira at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.

Pereira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ankalaev's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ankalaev
Pereira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+79"
33+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ankalaev
Pereira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.0
76.5
59.9
Performance Avg
76.4
43
Quality of Victory
72
100
Momentum Score
78
Ankalaev
Pereira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.3
59%
Strike Accuracy
68%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
21
3
Body
3
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground23
Ankalaev
Pereira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ankalaev
Pereira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
13/16 fights
Ankalaev
Pereira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
W · KO · R2
Ankalaev
Pereira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
80%
6
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ankalaev
Pereira
Striking6.7 / 9.7Volume5.7 / 3.3Grappling1.2 / 0.5Wrestling0.8 / 0.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.1 / 8.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Ankalaev
Strike Zones
Pereira
Ankalaev
Attacking
0HEAD3BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD3BODY4LEGS28 absorbed
Pereira
Attacking
21HEAD3BODY4LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD3BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ankalaev targets the body (75% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Pereira targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ankalaev absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ankalaev
RND
Pereira
0/0R00/0

Ankalaev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.7L5.4W4.5W5.5W5.3W5.3W5.7W5.3W4.5W6.4W5.9W4.6W6.6W3.6L2018-032020-022022-032025-032025-10
WinLossTrend

Pereira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0105.2W5.8W6.1W6.9W3.5L5.1W6.8W6.3W6.8W6.3W7.0L6.5W2021-112022-112023-112024-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Ankalaev · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Alex PereiraRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Alex PereiraRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 4.6
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Johnny WalkerRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Johnny Walker
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Pereira · Last 5

Upcoming
Ciryl Gane
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Magomed AnkalaevRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · KO · R4
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.8
KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

News & Media

Magomed Ankalaev · Alex Pereira
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