UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Women's Strawweight
VS
55%
Alencar
45%
Polastri
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Talita
Talita Alencar
"Problem Child"
8 – 1
5'1"58" reachOrthodox35 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Julia
Julia Polastri
"Psycho"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded28 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'2"
CFR 48

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alencar

This is a genuine toss-up — Alencar at 55% vs Polastri at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Polastri has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Alencar
Polastri
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'2"
58"
Reach
+63"
35
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alencar
Polastri
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
47.7
50.0
Performance Avg
38.5
30
Quality of Victory
38
91
Momentum Score
59
Alencar
Polastri
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.4
39%
Strike Accuracy
59%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
22
9
Body
2
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
28Distance28
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Alencar
Polastri
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alencar
Polastri
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/9 fights
Chin rating based on
5/20 fights
Alencar
Polastri
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
59
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Alencar
Polastri
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alencar
Polastri
Striking1.6 / 5.8Volume7.6 / 4.8Grappling3.8 / 1.2Wrestling2.7 / 0.8Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Alencar
Strike Zones
Polastri
Alencar
Attacking
17HEAD9BODY2LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD2BODY6LEGS30 absorbed
Polastri
Attacking
22HEAD2BODY6LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD9BODY2LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alencar targets the head (61% of attacks) — Polastri absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Polastri targets the head (73% of attacks) — Alencar absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alencar
RND
Polastri
0/0R00/0

Alencar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W6.9L4.7W6.5W5.1W2023-122024-082025-042025-112026-04
WinLossTrend

Polastri · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0106.0L5.0W6.0L5.5W6.7L2024-062024-102025-032025-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Alencar · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Julia PolastriRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiRating 6.5
Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Stephanie LucianoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Rayanne dos SantosRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12

Polastri · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Talita AlencarRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Cory McKennaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Josefine KnutssonRating 6
Decision
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News & Media

Talita Alencar · Julia Polastri
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