METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Women's Strawweight
VS
50%
Alencar
50%
Polastri
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Talita AlencarwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Julia Polastri · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alencar
→
Actual result
Alencar wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Alencar at 50% vs Polastri at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Polastri has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlencarPolastri
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alencar
Polastri
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'2"
58"
Reach
+63"
35
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alencar
Polastri
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
58.5
50.0
Performance Avg
47.0
30
Quality of Victory
45
91
Momentum Score
80
Alencar
Polastri
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
7.7
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
6.2
7.6
Style: Volume
3.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
22
9
Body
2
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
28Distance28
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Alencar
Polastri
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alencar
Polastri
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
94
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/9 fights
Chin rating based on
6/20 fights
Alencar
Polastri
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
80
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Alencar
Polastri
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alencar
Polastri
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
7.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
AlencarPolastri
Strike Zones
Alencar
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedPolastri
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alencar targets the head (61% of attacks) — Polastri absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Polastri targets the head (73% of attacks) — Alencar absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alencar
RND
Polastri
0/0R00/0
Alencar · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Julia PolastriDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Stephanie LucianoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Rayanne dos SantosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
Polastri · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Xiong JingnanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08
L · Dec · R3
Talita AlencarDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Cory McKennaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10