UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Las Vegas, USA
10 Sept 2022
Featherweight
VS
48%
Dawodu
52%
Erosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
HD
Hakeem Dawodu
"Mean"
13 – 4
5'8"73" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Julian
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31 – 14
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Erosa

This is a genuine toss-up — Dawodu at 48% vs Erosa at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Erosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Striking split: Erosa throws more volume but Dawodu connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Erosa has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Dawodu
Erosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+74"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Dawodu
Erosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.1
39.6
41.5
Performance Avg
46.2
29
Quality of Victory
44
80
Momentum Score
26
Dawodu
Erosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
15
6
Body
7
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
18Distance14
3Clinch4
1Ground4
Dawodu
Erosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.4
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dawodu
Erosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
7
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Dawodu
Erosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Dawodu
Erosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
17%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dawodu
Erosa
Striking2.9 / 3.2Volume7.9 / 3.7Grappling2.0 / 4.4Wrestling1.4 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 4.4Pressure3.0 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Dawodu
Strike Zones
Erosa
Dawodu
Attacking
13HEAD6BODY3LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD7BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Erosa
Attacking
15HEAD7BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD6BODY3LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dawodu targets the head (59% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Erosa targets the head (68% of attacks) — Dawodu absorbs 68% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dawodu
RND
Erosa
0/0R00/0

Dawodu · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0101.5L4.5W4.5W5.5W5.2W5.0W6.8L4.5W5.7L6.0L2018-032019-072021-062023-08
WinLossTrend

Erosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W2.8L1.5L7.0L4.7L6.6W5.7W1.7L6.3W4.5W4.6W1.7L2.8L5.1W5.6W5.5W6.7L3.9L2015-122020-062022-092025-042026-03
WinLossTrend

Dawodu · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · Dec · R3
Michael TrizanoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Zubaira TukhugovRating 5
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09

Erosa · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

News & Media

Hakeem Dawodu · Julian Erosa
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