UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Newark, USA
7 Jun 2025
Lightweight
VS
89%
Mederos
11%
Choinski
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MarQuel
MarQuel Mederos
11 – 1
5'10"69" reachOrthodox29 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Mark
Mark Choinski
"The Shark"
8 – 1
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mederos

Mederos is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mederos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Mederos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Mederos
Choinski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
29+
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mederos
Choinski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.8
7.8
55.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Mederos
Choinski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.2
62%
Strike Accuracy
53%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
14
3
Body
4
11
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance14
5Clinch2
3Ground2
Mederos
Choinski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mederos
Choinski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
1/9 fights
Mederos
Choinski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mederos
Choinski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mederos
Choinski
Striking2.0 / 0.0Volume10.0 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
10.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Mederos
Strike Zones
Choinski
Mederos
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY11LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD4BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Choinski
Attacking
14HEAD4BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY11LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mederos targets the head (48% of attacks) — Choinski absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Choinski targets the head (78% of attacks) — Mederos absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mederos
RND
Choinski
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Mederos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W2024-022025-032025-06
WinLossTrend

Mederos · Last 4

Upcoming
Chris Padilla
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Mark ChoinskiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Landon QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

Choinski · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
MarQuel MederosRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

News & Media

MarQuel Mederos · Mark Choinski
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