METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Newark, USA
7 Jun 2025
Lightweight
VS
89%
Mederos
11%
Choinski
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
MarQuel MederoswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Mark Choinski · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mederos
→
Actual result
Mederos wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Mederos is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 58 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mederos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 33 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MederosChoinski
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mederos
Choinski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
29+
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mederos
Choinski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.7
7.8
59.5
Performance Avg
0.0
33
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Mederos
Choinski
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
0.0
8.0
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
14
3
Body
4
11
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance14
5Clinch2
3Ground2
Mederos
Choinski
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mederos
Choinski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
1/9 fights
Mederos
Choinski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mederos
Choinski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mederos
Choinski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MederosChoinski
Strike Zones
Mederos
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedChoinski
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mederos targets the head (48% of attacks) — Choinski absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Choinski targets the head (78% of attacks) — Mederos absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mederos
RND
Choinski
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mederos · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Mason JonesKO/TKO
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Choinski · Last 1
L · Dec · R3
MarQuel MederosDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06