UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Jul 2020
Flyweight
VS
38%
Paiva
62%
Zhumagulov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Zhumagulov
Zhumagulov holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Paiva has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Zhumagulov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Striking split: Zhumagulov throws more volume but Paiva connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Zhumagulov has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Paiva
Zhumagulov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'4"
69"+
Reach
66"
30+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Paiva
Zhumagulov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
33.0
38.1
Performance Avg
38.1
35
Quality of Victory
54
20
Momentum Score
26
Paiva
Zhumagulov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
7
7
Body
2
5
Leg
11
RangeRange
14Distance20
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Paiva
Zhumagulov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Paiva
Zhumagulov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
68
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/26 fights
Chin rating based on
7/23 fights
Paiva
Zhumagulov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
26
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Paiva
Zhumagulov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Paiva
Zhumagulov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
PaivaZhumagulov
Strike Zones
Paiva
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedZhumagulov
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Paiva targets the body (47% of attacks) — Zhumagulov absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Zhumagulov targets the legs (55% of attacks) — Paiva absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Paiva
RND
Zhumagulov
0/0R00/0
Paiva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Zhumagulov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Paiva · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergey MorozovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Zhalgas ZhumagulovRating 4.5Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R2
Mark De La RosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
Zhumagulov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
Jeff MolinaRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · Sub · R1
Jerome RiveraRating 5Submission
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07