Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Lightweight

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

21 Oct 2023

Lightweight

54%

Makhachev

46%

Volkanovski

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 3:06

Islam Makhachev

28 – 1

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs17-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 74

Alexander Volkanovski

"The Great"

28 – 4

Well-Rounded2-fight win streak37 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'6"

CFR 64

★ Official Result

Islam MakhachevwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:06

def. Alexander Volkanovski · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Makhachev

→

Actual result

Makhachev wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 54% vs Volkanovski at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Volkanovski has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MakhachevVolkanovski

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Makhachev

Volkanovski

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'6"

70"

Reach

+71"

34+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Makhachev

Volkanovski

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

73.9

64.0

69.4

Performance Avg

59.8

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Makhachev

Volkanovski

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.6

/ 10

5.0

/ 10

7.1

Style: Pressure

4.8

5.0

Style: Volume

7.0

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

7Distance3

8Clinch1

9Ground0

Makhachev

Volkanovski

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.5

/ 10

1.6

/ 10

3.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.1

4.4

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Makhachev

Volkanovski

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.5 stoppage

17 fights ago

Last KO loss

3 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/29 fights

Chin rating based on

19/32 fights

Makhachev

Volkanovski

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

17-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

2-fight 🔥 win streak

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R5

W · KO · R1

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Dec · R5

L · KO · R2

L · KO · R1

Makhachev

Volkanovski

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

61%

33%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev

Volkanovski

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.0

4.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.6

3.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.1

4.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

7.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

4.8

5.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.0

Makhachev

Strike Zones

Volkanovski

Makhachev

Attacking

24 landed

Absorbing

4 absorbed

Volkanovski

Attacking

4 landed

Absorbing

24 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Makhachev targets the head (54% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 54% of strikes there

🎯Volkanovski targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev

RND

Volkanovski

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Ian Machado Garry

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R5

Jack Della Maddalena

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Sub · R1

Renato Moicano

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · Sub · R5

Dustin Poirier

Submission

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

W · KO · R1

Alexander Volkanovski

KO/TKO

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Volkanovski · Last 5

Upcoming

Movsar Evloev

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10

W · Dec · R5

Diego Lopes

Decision

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01

W · Dec · R5

Diego Lopes

Decision

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

L · KO · R2

Ilia Topuria

KO/TKO

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

L · KO · R1

Islam Makhachev

KO/TKO

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Alexander Volkanovski

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