UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Women's Strawweight
VS
95%
Pennington
5%
Jones-Lybarger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tecia
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
15 – 8
5'1"60" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 50
JJ
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
6 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'7"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pennington

Pennington is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pennington has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.

Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Pennington
Jones-Lybarger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'7"
60"
Reach
+64"
36+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pennington
Jones-Lybarger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.8
2.4
39.8
Performance Avg
0.0
28
Quality of Victory
0
89
Momentum Score
0
Pennington
Jones-Lybarger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
31%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
37
Head
6
3
Body
8
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
36Distance13
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Pennington
Jones-Lybarger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pennington
Jones-Lybarger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/23 fights
Chin rating based on
3/10 fights
Pennington
Jones-Lybarger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Pennington
Jones-Lybarger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pennington
Jones-Lybarger
Striking1.2 / 0.0Volume7.7 / 0.0Grappling2.7 / 0.0Wrestling1.9 / 0.0Submission0.9 / 0.0Pressure2.4 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Pennington
Strike Zones
Jones-Lybarger
Pennington
Attacking
37HEAD3BODY0LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD8BODY1LEGS15 absorbed
Jones-Lybarger
Attacking
6HEAD8BODY1LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD3BODY0LEGS40 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the head (93% of attacks) — Jones-Lybarger absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Jones-Lybarger targets the body (53% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 53% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pennington
RND
Jones-Lybarger
0/0R00/0

Pennington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W4.6W4.5W6.9L4.5W5.2W4.5W6.3L5.5L7.3L6.2L4.5W4.7W4.6W6.7L6.2L4.8W4.5W6.8L2014-122017-072019-082024-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Jones-Lybarger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.2L5.5L4.0L2015-122016-062017-01
WinLossTrend

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04

Jones-Lybarger · Last 3

L · Sub · R3
Nina NunesRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · Dec · R3
Randa MarkosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · 2015-12

News & Media

Tecia Pennington · Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
← Back to fights