UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Bantamweight
VS
66%
Jr.
34%
Morales
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Raul
Raul Rosas Jr.
"El Nino Problema"
12 – 1
5'9"67" reachSwitch21 yrs5-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 67
VM
Vince Morales
"Vandetta"
16 – 11
Well-Rounded6-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jr.

Jr. holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Morales has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Morales throws more volume but Jr. connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jr.
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
67"
Reach
+70"
21+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Jr.
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
67.3
34.6
58.1
Performance Avg
32.0
40
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
30
Jr.
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Jr.
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jr.
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/13 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Jr.
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
30
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Jr.
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jr.
Morales
Striking3.4 / 3.8Volume5.7 / 5.8Grappling3.9 / 1.6Wrestling2.7 / 1.1Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure6.1 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Jr.
Strike Zones
Morales
Jr.
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Morales
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jr. targets the head (75% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (83% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jr.
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0

Jr. · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W6.1L5.0W5.2W5.3W4.5W5.7W2022-122023-092024-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Morales · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0106.8L5.6W5.5L3.2L4.5W5.0W6.0L5.5L6.2L7.4L7.1L6.0L2018-112020-052022-052025-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Jr. · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
AoriqilengRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R2
Ricky TurciosRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Terrence MitchellRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

Morales · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Elijah SmithRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11

News & Media

Raul Rosas Jr. · Vince Morales
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