Raul Rosas Jr. vs Vince Morales — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Mexico City, Mexico

29 Mar 2025

Bantamweight

66%

Jr.

34%

Morales

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Raul Rosas Jr.

"El Nino Problema"

12 – 1

5'9"67" reachSwitch21 yrs5-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 67

Vince Morales

"Vandetta"

16 – 11

Well-Rounded6-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"

CFR 35

★ Official Result

Raul Rosas Jr.winsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Vince Morales · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Jr.

→

Actual result

Jr. wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Jr. holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Morales has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

Jr.Morales

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Jr.

Morales

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'9"+

Height

5'7"

67"

Reach

+70"

21+

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

Jr.

Morales

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

67.3

34.6

58.1

Performance Avg

32.0

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Jr.

Morales

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.4

/ 10

3.8

/ 10

6.1

Style: Pressure

3.1

5.7

Style: Volume

5.8

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

4Distance5

0Clinch0

0Ground1

Jr.

Morales

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.9

/ 10

1.6

/ 10

2.7

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.1

3.3

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Jr.

Morales

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

8 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

8/13 fights

Chin rating based on

12/27 fights

Jr.

Morales

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

5-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

6-fight 📉 slide

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Jr.

Morales

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

50%

33%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jr.

Morales

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.8

3.9

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.6

2.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.1

3.3

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

6.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.1

5.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.8

Jr.

Strike Zones

Morales

Jr.

Attacking

4 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Morales

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

4 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Jr. targets the head (75% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 75% of strikes there

🎯Morales targets the head (83% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jr.

RND

Morales

0/0R00/0

Jr. · Last 5

Upcoming

Raoni Barcelos

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09

W · Dec · R3

Rob Font

Decision

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03

W · Dec · R3

Vince Morales

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Aoriqileng

Decision

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

W · Sub · R2

Ricky Turcios

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06

Morales · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Colby Thicknesse

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05

L · Dec · R3

Raul Rosas Jr.

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · Dec · R3

Elijah Smith

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02

L · Dec · R3

Taylor Lapilus

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

L · Dec · R3

Miles Johns

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11

News & Media

Raul Rosas Jr. · Vince Morales

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