UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal
Seoul, South Korea
28 Nov 2015
Women's Strawweight
VS
26%
Ham
74%
Casey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Casey
Casey is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Casey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Casey throws more volume but Ham connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Ham
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'2"
Height
+5'7"
62"
Reach
+67"
39
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ham
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.5
27.5
25.0
Performance Avg
40.3
25
Quality of Victory
41
17
Momentum Score
73
Ham
Casey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
39%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
19
9
Body
4
7
Leg
2
RangeRange
26Distance14
5Clinch11
0Ground0
Ham
Casey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ham
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/25 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Ham
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
73
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Ham
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ham
Casey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
HamCasey
Strike Zones
Ham
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedCasey
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ham targets the head (48% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the head (76% of attacks) — Ham absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ham
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0
Ham · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Casey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Ham · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Danielle TaylorRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Bec RawlingsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
W · Dec · R3
Cortney CaseyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
L · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodRating 5.7Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · 2014-12
Casey · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Antonina ShevchenkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Liana JojuaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero BorellaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05