★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 38: Brawl at the Hall
London, United Kingdom
13 Jul 2002
Welterweight
VS
51%
Hughes
49%
Newton
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 4 · 3:37
MH
Matt Hughes
45 – 9
5'9"73" reachSwitch52 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 23
CN
Carlos Newton
"The Ronin"
16 – 14
Submission Hunter49 yrsOrthodox5'9"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hughes

This is a genuine toss-up — Hughes at 51% vs Newton at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hughes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hughes's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Newton has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Hughes
Newton
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
73"
Reach
52
Age
+49
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Hughes
Newton
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.0
21.7
64.6
Performance Avg
54.9
60
Quality of Victory
63
100
Momentum Score
72
Hughes
Newton
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.2
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Hughes
Newton
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hughes
Newton
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/54 fights
Chin rating based on
7/30 fights
Hughes
Newton
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
72
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R4
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Hughes
Newton
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
61%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
3
7
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hughes
Newton
Striking4.8 / 0.9Volume3.7 / 0.9Grappling2.9 / 8.0Wrestling2.0 / 5.6Submission2.8 / 10.0Pressure6.4 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Hughes
Strike Zones
Newton
Hughes
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Newton
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hughes targets the head (91% of attacks) — Newton absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hughes
RND
Newton
0/0R00/0

Hughes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W4.0W1.5L5.1W5.4W5.4W4.0W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.2W2.1L4.5W2.1L2.8L4.5W5.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L1999-092003-042006-052010-042011-09
WinLossTrend

Newton · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.8L5.2W2.1L3.4L5.0W5.5L1998-052001-052002-072004-01
WinLossTrend

Hughes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Josh KoscheckRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
L · KO · R1
BJ PennRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo AlmeidaRating 5
Submission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · KO · R3
Renzo GracieRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05

Newton · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Renato VerissimoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 46: Supernatural · 2004-01
W · Sub · R1
Pete SprattRating 5
Submission
UFC 40: Vendetta · 2002-11
L · KO · R4
Matt HughesRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 38: Brawl at the Hall · 2002-07
L · KO · R2
Matt HughesRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 34: High Voltage · 2001-11
W · Sub · R3
Pat MiletichRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 31: Locked and Loaded · 2001-05

News & Media

Matt Hughes · Carlos Newton
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