UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Middleweight
VS
41%
Boetsch
59%
Samman
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:49
TB
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
21 – 13
6'0"74" reachOrthodox45 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 17
JS
Josh Samman
"Anqa"
13 – 4
Knockout Artist2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'3"
CFR 24

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Samman

This is a genuine toss-up — Boetsch at 41% vs Samman at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Samman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Boetsch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Boetsch's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Samman has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Boetsch
Samman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+79"
45
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Boetsch
Samman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.6
23.5
46.0
Performance Avg
56.8
43
Quality of Victory
55
69
Momentum Score
91
Boetsch
Samman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
57%
Strike Accuracy
56%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.9
7 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
2
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
24Ground0
Boetsch
Samman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Boetsch
Samman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/34 fights
Chin rating based on
5/17 fights
Boetsch
Samman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
69
91
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Boetsch
Samman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Boetsch
Samman
Striking6.8 / 7.9Volume4.3 / 1.2Grappling1.0 / 2.7Wrestling0.7 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure5.6 / 8.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
Boetsch
Strike Zones
Samman
Boetsch
Attacking
23HEAD3BODY0LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Samman
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD3BODY0LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Boetsch targets the head (88% of attacks) — Samman absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Samman targets the head (50% of attacks) — Boetsch absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Boetsch
RND
Samman
0/0R00/0

Boetsch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W2.8L5.0W5.5L4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.0L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.3W2.8L1.5L2.9L5.2W5.0W1.5L5.2W1.5L5.5L2008-022011-052013-102016-072019-03
WinLossTrend

Samman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.2W5.2W5.0W4.0L2.8L2013-042014-122015-072015-122016-07
WinLossTrend

Boetsch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
L · Sub · R1
Antonio Carlos JuniorRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · KO · R2
Johny HendricksRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Sub · R1
Jacare SouzaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · KO · R1
Rafael NatalRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11

Samman · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Tim BoetschRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Tamdan McCroryRating 4
Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
W · Sub · R1
Caio MagalhaesRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
W · KO · R2
Eddie GordonRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
W · KO · R2
Kevin CaseyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · 2013-04

News & Media

Tim Boetsch · Josh Samman
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