METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
Melbourne, Australia
14 Nov 2015
Lightweight
VS
76%
Matthews
24%
Arreola
Win Probability
AA
CFR 18
★ Official Result
Jake MatthewswinsR2 · 5:00
def. Akbarh Arreola · UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Matthews
→
Actual result
Matthews wins
Pre-fight analysis
Matthews is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Arreola has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MatthewsArreola
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Matthews
Arreola
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
71"
32+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Matthews
Arreola
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.2
17.7
48.4
Performance Avg
42.4
36
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
36
Matthews
Arreola
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
5.1
Style: Pressure
7.8
5.3
Style: Volume
0.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
40
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
40Ground1
Matthews
Arreola
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
6
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Matthews
Arreola
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
4/34 fights
Matthews
Arreola
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Matthews
Arreola
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Arreola
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MatthewsArreola
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedArreola
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (98% of attacks) — Arreola absorbs 98% of strikes there
🎯Arreola targets the head (50% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Arreola
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Matthews · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
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Arreola · Last 4
L · R2
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L · Dec · R3
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