UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
Melbourne, Australia
14 Nov 2015
Lightweight
VS
76%
Matthews
24%
Arreola
Win Probability
AA
CFR 18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
Matthews is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Arreola has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Matthews has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Matthews
Arreola
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
71"
31+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Matthews
Arreola
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
17.7
48.3
Performance Avg
42.4
37
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
36
Matthews
Arreola
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
46%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
40
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
40Ground1
Matthews
Arreola
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Arreola
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
4/34 fights
Matthews
Arreola
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Matthews
Arreola
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Arreola
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MatthewsArreola
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedArreola
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (98% of attacks) — Arreola absorbs 98% of strikes there
🎯Arreola targets the head (50% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Arreola
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Arreola · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Arreola · Last 4
L · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 5.8UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
W · Sub · R1
Yves EdwardsRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · Dec · R3
Tiago dos Santos e SilvaRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · 2014-07