UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Glasgow, United Kingdom
16 Jul 2017
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Jr.
48%
Craig
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:56
Khalil
Khalil Rountree Jr.
15 – 7
6'1"76" reachSouthpaw36 yrsStriker
CFR 54
Paul
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17 – 10
Pressure Fighter4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'3"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jr.

This is a genuine toss-up — Jr. at 52% vs Craig at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Craig has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Jr.'s chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jr.
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
36+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Jr.
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.7
49.1
52.0
Performance Avg
50.4
48
Quality of Victory
52
77
Momentum Score
46
Jr.
Craig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
47%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
1
1
Body
3
0
Leg
13
RangeRange
13Distance17
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Jr.
Craig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jr.
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/22 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Jr.
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
77
46
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Jr.
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jr.
Craig
Striking8.2 / 4.3Volume3.6 / 0.9Grappling0.7 / 5.3Wrestling0.5 / 3.7Submission0.0 / 6.7Pressure6.7 / 8.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Jr.
Strike Zones
Craig
Jr.
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY13LEGS17 absorbed
Craig
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY13LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jr. targets the head (93% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the legs (76% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jr.
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Jr. · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L2.5L5.0W5.7W5.0W2.3L5.3W1.8L5.9L6.1W5.2W5.9W5.3W6.7W5.5L5.8W5.7L2016-072018-112022-032025-062025-10
WinLossTrend

Craig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W2.5L2.4L7.0W5.5L6.8W2.4L5.0W5.0W5.2W6.3W6.2W6.3L2.3L6.2W4.1L4.1L7.2L2.3L2016-122019-032021-062023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Jr. · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Jamahal HillRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Alex PereiraRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anthony SmithRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08

Craig · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

News & Media

Khalil Rountree Jr. · Paul Craig
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