UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 Oct 2025
Bantamweight
VS
93%
Lacerda
7%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lacerda
Lacerda is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lacerda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.
Lacerda has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oliveira has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lacerda
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
71"
Reach
+72"
33+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lacerda
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.0
3.4
39.7
Performance Avg
0.0
50
Quality of Victory
0
22
Momentum Score
0
Lacerda
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
39%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
13
3
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance4
0Clinch0
9Ground11
Lacerda
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lacerda
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
42
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/17 fights
Chin rating based on
4/25 fights
Lacerda
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Lacerda
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lacerda
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
LacerdaOliveira
Strike Zones
Lacerda
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lacerda targets the head (71% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (87% of attacks) — Lacerda absorbs 87% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lacerda
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Lacerda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Lacerda · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Hecher SosaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Saimon OliveiraRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R2
Da'Mon BlackshearRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
Oliveira · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Luan LacerdaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
David MartinezRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Daniel MarcosRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony GravelyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01