METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 6 Welterweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale
Las Vegas, USA
8 Dec 2007
Ultimate Fighter 6 Welterweight Tournament
VS
91%
Danzig
9%
Speer
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:01
★ Official Result
Mac DanzigwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:01
def. Tommy Speer · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Danzig
→
Actual result
Danzig wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Danzig is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Danzig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 51 points.
Risk flags
Danzig's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Speer has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DanzigSpeer
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Danzig
Speer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Danzig
Speer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.9
1.8
46.0
Performance Avg
0.0
51
Quality of Victory
0
65
Momentum Score
0
Danzig
Speer
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
0.0
4.0
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
5
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance0
5Clinch4
5Ground0
Danzig
Speer
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Danzig
Speer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
2/28 fights
Danzig
Speer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Danzig
Speer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Danzig
Speer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
DanzigSpeer
Strike Zones
Danzig
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedSpeer
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Danzig targets the head (50% of attacks) — Speer absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Speer targets the body (50% of attacks) — Danzig absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Danzig
RND
Speer
0/0R00/0
Danzig · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Joe LauzonDecision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
L · KO · R2
Melvin GuillardKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Takanori GomiDecision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11
W · Dec · R3
Efrain EscuderoDecision
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanDecision
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
Speer · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
L · Sub · R1
Mac DanzigSubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · 2007-12