METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 6 Welterweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale
Las Vegas, USA
8 Dec 2007
Ultimate Fighter 6 Welterweight Tournament
VS
91%
Danzig
9%
Speer
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:01
★ Official Result
Mac DanzigwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:01
def. Tommy Speer · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Danzig
→
Actual result
Danzig wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Danzig is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Danzig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 51 points.
Danzig has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Danzig's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Speer has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DanzigSpeer
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Danzig
Speer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
46
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Danzig
Speer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.9
1.8
46.0
Performance Avg
0.0
51
Quality of Victory
0
65
Momentum Score
0
Danzig
Speer
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
0.8
53%
Strike Accuracy
29%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
5
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance0
5Clinch4
5Ground0
Danzig
Speer
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Danzig
Speer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/33 fights
Chin rating based on
2/28 fights
Danzig
Speer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Danzig
Speer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Danzig
Speer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
DanzigSpeer
Strike Zones
Danzig
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedSpeer
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Danzig targets the head (50% of attacks) — Speer absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Speer targets the body (50% of attacks) — Danzig absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Danzig
RND
Speer
0/0R00/0
Danzig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Speer · QOF Timeline
Avg: 1.5WinLossTrend
Danzig · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Joe LauzonRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
L · KO · R2
Melvin GuillardRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Takanori GomiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11
W · Dec · R3
Efrain EscuderoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
Speer · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
L · Sub · R1
Mac DanzigRating 1.5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · 2007-12