UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 May 2019
Lightweight
VS
33%
Penn
67%
Guida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BP
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16 – 14
5'9"70" reachOrthodox47 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Penn has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Penn has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.

Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Penn connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Penn's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Penn
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
70"
47
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Penn
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.2
44.2
56.9
Performance Avg
40.7
63
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
78
Penn
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
51%
Strike Accuracy
36%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
23
2
Body
7
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
12Distance21
8Clinch11
0Ground0
Penn
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Penn
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
8
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/30 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Penn
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Penn
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
39%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Penn
Guida
Striking6.0 / 2.1Volume1.6 / 5.9Grappling2.9 / 3.7Wrestling2.0 / 2.6Submission3.3 / 2.8Pressure7.3 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
1.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Penn
Strike Zones
Guida
Penn
Attacking
18HEAD2BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD7BODY2LEGS32 absorbed
Guida
Attacking
23HEAD7BODY2LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD2BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Penn targets the head (90% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (72% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 72% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Penn
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0

Penn · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W3.4L5.4W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L2.8L3.7L5.5L1.5L6.0L2001-052006-032009-122017-012019-05
WinLossTrend

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Penn · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 2.8
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

News & Media

BJ Penn · Clay Guida
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