UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
13 Nov 2021
Heavyweight
VS
36%
Rothwell
64%
Lima
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lima
Lima holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Rothwell has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lima has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rothwell's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lima has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rothwell
Lima
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
75"
44
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rothwell
Lima
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.0
47.3
49.7
Performance Avg
53.8
48
Quality of Victory
49
45
Momentum Score
59
Rothwell
Lima
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
46%
Strike Accuracy
60%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
11
0
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Rothwell
Lima
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rothwell
Lima
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
16
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/53 fights
Chin rating based on
18/32 fights
Rothwell
Lima
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
59
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Rothwell
Lima
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
73%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
3
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rothwell
Lima
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
RothwellLima
Strike Zones
Rothwell
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedLima
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rothwell targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Lima targets the head (79% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rothwell
RND
Lima
0/0R00/0
Rothwell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lima · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Chris BarnettRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · KO · R2
Stefan StruveRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
Lima · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05