UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2
Montevideo, Uruguay
10 Aug 2019
Welterweight
VS
74%
Burns
26%
Kunchenko
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Burns
Burns is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Burns has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Kunchenko has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Burns
Kunchenko
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
70"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Kunchenko
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
14.2
48.1
Performance Avg
35.0
40
Quality of Victory
25
28
Momentum Score
56
Burns
Kunchenko
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.8
49%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
13
1
Body
2
2
Leg
9
RangeRange
7Distance13
0Clinch10
1Ground1
Burns
Kunchenko
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burns
Kunchenko
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
96
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
Burns
Kunchenko
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
56
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Burns
Kunchenko
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Kunchenko
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
BurnsKunchenko
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedKunchenko
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (63% of attacks) — Kunchenko absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Kunchenko targets the head (54% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Kunchenko
0/0R00/0
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Kunchenko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Kunchenko · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09