★ Championship Bout · Interim Bantamweight
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
Toronto, Canada
21 Sept 2013
Interim Bantamweight
VS
36%
Barao
64%
Wineland
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:35
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Wineland
Wineland holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Barao has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Wineland throws more volume but Barao connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Wineland has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barao
Wineland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barao
Wineland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
28.2
59.4
Performance Avg
45.0
64
Quality of Victory
50
0
Momentum Score
78
Barao
Wineland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.8
38%
Strike Accuracy
32%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Barao
Wineland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.7
/ 10
0.4
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barao
Wineland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
0
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
16/40 fights
Barao
Wineland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
78
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Barao
Wineland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
83%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barao
Wineland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
BaraoWineland
Strike Zones
Barao
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedWineland
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (86% of attacks) — Wineland absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Wineland targets the body (100% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barao
RND
Wineland
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Wineland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
Wineland · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cody StamannRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
John CastanedaRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · KO · R2
Grigory PopovRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07