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UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Saint Petersburg, Russia
20 Apr 2019
Lightweight
VS
52%
Makhachev
48%
Tsarukyan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Islam
Islam Makhachev
28 – 1
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs16-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 75
Arman
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
23 – 3
Well-Rounded5-fight win streak29 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'7"
CFR 68
★ Official Result
Islam MakhachevwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Arman Tsarukyan · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Makhachev
→
Actual result
Makhachev wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 52% vs Tsarukyan at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Makhachev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Tsarukyan throws more volume but Makhachev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
MakhachevTsarukyan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Makhachev
Tsarukyan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
+72"
34
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Makhachev
Tsarukyan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.5
67.5
69.8
Performance Avg
58.4
53
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
100
Makhachev
Tsarukyan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
1.6
60%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
2
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Makhachev
Tsarukyan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.6
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
3.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
4.7
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
8
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Makhachev
Tsarukyan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
16 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/29 fights
Chin rating based on
12/26 fights
Makhachev
Tsarukyan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
16-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Makhachev
Tsarukyan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
8
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev
Tsarukyan
Striking3.6 / 5.7Volume4.7 / 5.7Grappling4.6 / 2.0Wrestling3.2 / 1.4Submission4.7 / 1.0Pressure7.4 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Makhachev
Strike Zones
Tsarukyan
Makhachev
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Tsarukyan
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (50% of attacks) — Tsarukyan absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Tsarukyan targets the body (60% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev
RND
Tsarukyan
0/0R00/0

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W6.1W4.5W6.7W5.6W5.9W5.7W6.5W6.0W6.5W6.8W5.8W6.0W2015-052018-072021-102024-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Tsarukyan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0107.5L4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W6.5W6.6L4.5W6.1W6.0W5.9W6.0W2019-042021-012022-062023-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

Tsarukyan · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Dan HookerRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · KO · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Damir IsmagulovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Arman Tsarukyan
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